ICT PENETRATION AND USAGE IN ETHIOPIA:
BASELINE STUDY
THE SCN-ICT PROJECT
BY
MULAT DEMEKE
TADESSE BIRU
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ADLI Agricultural Development Lead Industrialization
EDI Electronic Documents Interchange
EIA Ethiopian Investment Agency
EITPA Ethiopian Information Technology Professionals Association
EPRDF Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front
ESTC Ethiopian Science and Technology Commission
ETA Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency
ETC Ethiopian Telecommunication Corporation
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
ICT Information and Communications Technology
ISP International Service Provider
IT Information Technology
ITU International Telecommunication Union
LAN Local Area Network
NGO Non Governmental Organizations
QSAE Quality and Standards Authority of Ethiopia
SAP Structural Adjustment Program
SNNP Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples
TGE Transitional Government of Ethiopia
WAN Wide Area network
Ethiopia has a total land area of 1.1 million and a population density of 59 persons per sq. km. Northern parts of the country and the lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid, while the rest of the country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter. The total population of the country reached 65 million in 2001, the second largest in sub-Saharan Africa (next to Nigeria). Currently growing at a rate of 2.9 percent, the population is expected to double within the next 20 to 25 years. Close to 45 percent of the population is under the age of 14 years. The level of urbanization is very low, only 15 percent of the total population lives in urban areas. Ethiopia's urban population is concentrated in one primate city, Addis Ababa, which accounts for about 27 percent of the total urban population. Adult illiteracy is very high at approximately 65 percent of adults above 15 years.
Nearly all social and economic development indicators reveal that Ethiopia is pitifully lagging behind the rest of the world. The country has neither tangible mineral resources nor rich agricultural potential to help accelerate its development. But it can make use of new technologies and improve the efficiency at which its available resources are used and thereby achieve rapid growth. ICTs promote growth and development through attracting foreign direct investment, international tourism and global business. Domestic operators become more productive and efficient by using ICTs. Incomes of the poor are generally known to grow faster in telecommunication - intensive economies.
The objective of the study is, therefore, to gather and analyze the information which the country needs to participate in a global information economy. More specifically, the study attempts to track the status of ICT-infrastructure related to telephony, Internet, computers, television and radio, assess ICT penetration and usage in the education, health and public sectors, and review the status of the ICT industry.
Two major approaches are employed in generating data for this study: survey and secondary data. A survey of institutions/firms and individuals (working in the selected institutions) is undertaken using structured and pre-tested questionnaires.
The survey is conducted in the Federal capital, Addis Ababa, where most of the ICT activities and government institutions are concentrated. In addition, four major towns, namely Nazareth, Bahir Dar, Mekelle and Awassa, which serve as the capital of Oromiya[1], Amhara, Tigray, and Southern Nations and Nationalities and Peoples' regional states, respectively, are included in the study. The discussion below summarizes some of the major findings of the primary and secondary data collected in the course of the study.
(i) ICT Infrastructure
Telecommunication network has expanded over the years under government ownership. However, in spite of the recent liberalization and privatization measures in different sectors, the telecommunication industry has remained under government control and the Ethiopian Telecommunication Corporation (ETC) is the only provider of fixed and mobile telephone, facsimile, ISP, telegraph and telex services.
The number of telephone subscribers increased from 105,985 in 1987/88 to 283,683 in 2000/01 and that of facsimile subscribers grew by 24% per annum over the same period. Internet services that were introduced in 1996/97 with 1042 subscribers increased to 6487 in 2002. Coverage of Internet services has expanded to 12 major towns but about 96% of the total subscribers are from Addis Ababa. The Internet bandwidth is very small i.e., the bandwidth from ISP to the Internet backbone is only 4Mb for uploading and 10Mb for downloading. The maximum bandwidth from user to ISP is 56Kb for dial-up access and 64Kb for leased lines. As of March 2002, the total number of Internet subscribers rose to 6,487.
The total number of local web-sites increased from 68 in 2000/01 to 88 in 2001/02 and it is projected to rise to 100 in 2002/03. Government web sites do not have information that is useful to the general public or institutional customers. No applications or enquiries can be submitted through the Internet. But a few private companies have developed web sites for selling goods and services (e-commerce).1
Low-speed, together with high service charges, has undermined the benefit of Internet connections in Ethiopia. The waiting time for connection and uploading/downloading documents is very long, especially during peak hours. Apart from discouraging individual users, the existing Internet service has become very expensive and many institutions, including several departments of Addis Ababa University, have restricted Internet access time for their staff to limited number of hours.
Mobile telephone became operational in 1998/99 with 6740 subscribers and rose to 27,532 subscribers in 2000/01 fiscal year. Mobile telephone services are available in Addis Ababa and two nearby towns, Debre Zeit and Nazareth. Nearly 91% of mobile phones are in the private sector (71% individuals and 21% business). Government sector and international organizations account for 4 and 5% respectively.
Teledensity is very low in Ethiopia and varies by region; the number of people per main telephone line ranged from 15.4 in Addis Ababa to 1,935 in Somali. Overall, there are 224 people per telephone line or 4.5 telephone lines per 1000 inhabitants of the country. Installed capacity of telephone line was 511,474 in 2000/01 as compared to 283,683 actual main lines. Addis Ababa alone accounts for 55% of the installed capacity. The main lines satisfy only 65% of the expressed demand of the country, and the proportion of waiting list (relative to the main line connections) was 55% in 2000/01. Sectoral distribution of telephone lines shows that the private sector (residential and business) uses 86% of the lines, while the government and international organizations take a share of 12% and 2% respectively.
There are 687 pay stations in the country and 85% of these are found in the four major regions (Amhara, Oromiya, Tigray and SNNP). Access to pay stations is very low with an average of 92,400 persons per station for the country.
There are no institutions that register the number of computers, TV sets and radios in the country. However, according to the estimation of the International Telecommunication Union, there were 75,000 computers in 2001 and 367,000 TV sets in 2000. Only 2.8% of the total households in the country have access to TV sets. The national survey of 1999/00 also showed that 18.4% of the population owned radios. The distribution of TV sets is concentrated in the major urban centers where relatively more people can afford the cost (average price of a TV set is USD 421) and electric power is available.
TV and radio stations in Ethiopia belong to the state. The government TV station used to have a single channel, Ethiopian TV, until TV Africa was introduced three years ago. TV Africa is available only in Addis and its suburbs. There are two government (federal) radio stations. The most important is the Ethiopian radio that has two channels: the first is for national and international audience and the second channel (FM 97.1) is limited to Addis Ababa and its environs. The second radio station, Education by Radio, covers most parts of the country and its primary role is to provide education to primary schools and distance education to adults.
(ii) ICT penetration and usage in selected sectors
ICT penetration and usage in schools/ colleges and health facilities varies markedly by type of ownership (government vs. non-government). Government owned health and educational institutions lag behind those owned by the private sector or NGOs. Regional towns are also at a disadvantage relative to Addis Ababa. Access to basic ICTs is also lower among employees residing in the regional towns than Addis Ababa. The dissemination of ICT beyond the capital city and the major regional towns i.e., smaller towns and rural areas where the bulk of the population resides, is extremely low.
ICT penetration is generally higher among the sample public institutions (e.g. federal ministries and regional bureaus) than education or health facilities. For instance, all the public institutions (100%) have computers and direct telephone lines. By contrast, some 18 and 67% of the schools and health facilities, respectively, have no access to computers. Eleven percent of the schools and 4% of the health facilities have no direct access to telephone lines. Internet connectivity is also higher for public institutions (69%) than for educational institutions (52%) or health establishments (13%).
Computers are widely used as office tools in the reporting institutions. Other important uses such as CD-Rom search is limited. Only 46% of the schools/colleges, 28% of the health facilities and 41% of the public institutions use computers for personnel administration. The use of computers in finance and library administration is also very low.
Institutions with Internet connection mainly use the technology for e-mail. There is no widespread practice of downloading/uploading information. The use of Internet for education purpose or procurement of material was not reported by the majority of the institutions that have the connection.
Although home pages and elaborate sites on the World Wide Web have become very popular throughout the world for disseminating information and documentation electronically, only 19, 2 and 22% of the education, health and public administration, respectively, have web sites. The content of those web sites is also limited to top level information of a very generic nature or only basic contact information to similar institutions or provide limited information about the institutions. It is also believed that the web sites contain largely outdated information.
Employees of the selected sectors personally own some basic ICT items, but the rate of ownership varies. For instance, about 78% of the health professionals own fixed telephone lines at home, compared to 42% of the teachers/instructors and 55% of the public employees (civil servants). About 88% of the health staff have access to local TV channels as compared to 66% for teachers and 79% for civil servants. Mobile telephones are also more commonly available among health workers (24%) than teachers/instructors (4%) or civil servants (5%). The distribution of satellite TV and World space radio is generally low (less than 12%) but it is relatively more favorable among health workers.
Between 11 and 12% and 3 and 6% of the total respondents have access to computers and the Internet at home. Offices (working places) are by far the most common place to work with computers for the employees. The next most important place of access is private computer centers followed by own house and telecenters.
Internet usage is limited to 26% of the teachers/instructors or health professionals and 45% of the civil servants. The work place is again the most popular place to access the Internet followed by private computer centers.
The response of all the respondents to the question of identifying the major constraints for the expansion of ICT in Ethiopia is largely consistent across the different sectors and regions. High cost of computer is by far the most important problem followed by poor telecommunication infrastructure, lack of accessories (necessary equipment) and high Internet service charge in that order. Other notable problems include shortage of trained manpower and absence of an ICT plan.
(iii) ICT industry
The ICT industry in Ethiopia is dominated by the parastatal Ethiopian Telecommunication Corporation (ETC) that has recently expanded its operation beyond its traditional monopoly area (telecommunication infrastructure). It now offers various short-term ICT training and Internet services (Internet cafes) and sells of telecommunication equipment in competition with small private companies. The rest of the ICT industry or private firms that have engaged in acquisition, production and distribution of ICTs (computer hardware and software, communication hardware and software, training and consultancy services and other ICT based services).
A total of 62 private firms were contacted in the sample survey of ICT industry. These firms employed 693 workers, and 556 (80%) of these were IT professionals. About 79% of the firms are engaged in short-term training, 55% in consultancy services, 60% in computer networking, and 66% in ICT hardware maintenance and support services. Some 65% of the respondents are engaged in ICT hardware and software sales. About 42% of the ICT firms are also operating in hardware assembly and software development.
The ICT firms engaged in a short term ICT training have trained a total of 16,715 persons. The most common areas of trainings are Introduction to Computers, Computer Maintenance and Trouble Shooting, and Networking.
ICT firms have complaints about the laws, regulations and procedures regarding the industry. Problems related to tax, copyright and customs regulations are identified as most serious ones by the respondent. High collateral requirements, negative attitudes of tax inspectors, absence of laws relating to hackers, virus and contraband goods are also among the major problems identified.
(iv) Regulatory framework
ICT firms get work permits and licenses from various regulatory and licensing institutions. But some firms appear to operate without licenses or permits. There are also firms that claim to have permissions from unauthorized offices.
Problems related to tax, copyright and customs regulations are the three most important problem areas identified by the respondents. Nearly 70% of the sample firms believed that the tax rates are too high. The industry is also affected by weak legal systems, too many contraband goods in the market and inadequate enforcement capacity.
The telecommunication law that favors government monopoly, has adversely affected the development of the ICT infrastructure. The long waiting time for the fixed lines and mobile telephones and the complaints of users about the quality of the services, suggest that closed market policies are inconsistent with the desire to expand the use of the new technology. Competition among providers of ICT could lead to increased investment, increased connectivity and better service.
The Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency (ETA) has recently been given the power to set standards for some ICT related services. Nonetheless, it has yet to issue competence permit. Users have no way of distinguishing between good and bad ICT goods or firms, and the market is likely to be dominated by the latter. The Ethiopian Science and Technology Commission (ESTC) is in the process of developing a national ICT strategy or policy. The Quality and Standard Authority (QSA) is not involved in setting standards in the area of ICT. It is hoped that the Ethiopian Information Technology Professional Association (EITPA) would help in setting up standards and issuing competence permit, though the Association is not yet fully operational. It cannot also operate until government regulatory bodies (e.g. ETA) start to provide the necessary services.
Ethiopia has no ICT strategies or policies so far. Financial resources and expertise have yet to be mobilized to formulate a national ICT strategy and monitor its implementation. The gap in regulatory framework has also adversely affected the efficiency and development of the industry. An effective and flexible regulatory body is necessary to create opportunities for producers and users of ICT. Laws related to patent right, hackers, virus creation/dissemination, etc. are also required to ensure sustainable growth of the industry.
v. Summing up
The benefit of ICTs in the selected sectors cannot be overemphasized. Employees and students with access to the Internet are known to perform better than those without access. Distance education and medical care could be expanded to people in isolated places with the help of ICTs. The Internet permits consultation between inexperienced and less qualified employees in remote areas with qualified professionals in urban areas.
Government measures aimed at improving the ICT infrastructure, encouraging the establishment of a computer assembly, reducing tax/duty rates, and issuing effective laws and regulations to protect the industry from illegal trade and sub-standard goods could be considered to improve access and foster a sustainable growth of the industry. Liberalizing the telecommunication industry is also important to provide competitive service at lower service charges. The problems of high transaction costs and uncertain business should be addressed to encourage long-term investment in the industry. The government should also work very closely with all stakeholders to overcome the deficiencies in the legal and regulatory framework.
A digital divide along income and educational level is emerging in Ethiopia. The logistic regression has confirmed that, other factors held constant, ICT usage is positively and significantly influenced by income and education level. Better-off parents send their children to private schools where the access to ICT is much better than government schools. The results have also shown that residents in the capital city where the infrastructure is relatively more developed have higher probability of accessing computers and the Internet than the rural ones. The root cause of these disparities is obviously poverty. Therefore, overcoming poverty, increasing awareness of people, reducing costs of ICTS and addressing the problem of infrastructure in the regional towns would increase the access to ICTS. Relatively older workers (teachers and health professionals) have also failed to perform as good as their younger colleagues. Training programs may need to focus on the older employees to close the gap. In general, the digital gap as reflected in income, education, infrastructure and age level would widen further unless corrective measures are taken as soon as possible.
INTRODUCTION
UN Economic Commission for Africa, in partnership with the International Development Research Centre, Canada (ACACIA), has initiated Scan‑ICT with the aim of supporting Africa's transition to an information society. Scan‑ICT is a long term project that intends to build support for building African capability to collect and manage key information needed to support the growing investment in information and communication technologies (ICTs). The goal is to support the African Information Society Initiative (AISI), the African mandate to use information and communication technologies to accelerate economic and social development. In 1996, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) Conference of Ministers of Development and Planning adopted the AISI through Resolution 812 (XXXI) as the African Information Society Initiative: An Action Framework to Build Africa's Information and Communication Infrastructure. The ECA was mandated to work with partners to implement the initiative throughout Africa. A baseline study was thus initiated in six different countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda) to collect information for the initiative.
This case study, one among the six country studies, has generated baseline data on ICT infrastructure and the penetration and utilisation of ICT in three selected sectors. ICT firms and the regulatory environment have also been reviewed to determine the capacity and prospect of making a transition to information society in Ethiopia.
The rest of the document is organised into six chapters. Chapter 1 provides background information about the country and the study methodology, while chapter 2 looks at the state of the ICT infrastructure. Chapter 3 is devoted to the discussion of sectoral applications of ICTs (the case of education, health and public administration). A comparative analysis and determinants of ICT penetration is given in chapter 4. Chapter 5 is about the information economy with a focus on the industry and the regulatory framework. Finally, conclusions and implications of the study are provided in chapter 6.
Ethiopia has a total land area of 1.1 million and population density of 59 persons per sq. km. Northern parts of the country and the lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid, while the rest of the country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter. The total population of the country reached 65 million in 2001, the second largest in sub-Saharan Africa (next to Nigeria). Currently it is growing at a rate of 2.9 percent per annum. The population is expected to double within the next 20 to 25 years. Close to 45 percent of the population is under the age of 14 years. Such a ver y high degree of dependency is bound to reduce the amount of resources available for investment.
The level of urbanization is very low in Ethiopia: only about 15 percent of the total population live in urban areas. Ethiopia's urban population is concentrated in one primate city, Addis Ababa, which accounts for about 27 percent of the total urban population. Adult illiteracy is very high in Ethiopia at approximately 65 percent of adults above 15 years.
The language most widely spoken is Amharic, the official language of the Federal Government and Oromifa is the second most widely spoken language. The educated elites speak English, as it is the medium of instruction in high schools and tertiary education. Of some 80 different ethnic groups making up the national mosaic, only seven had population larger than one million (Oromo, Amhara, Tigrai, Guraghe, Somalie, Sidama and Wolaita) in the 1994 census. The largest ethic group, Oromo, accounted for 32 percent of the total population. Christianity is the dominant religion in Ethiopia: 62 percent of the total population professed Christianity, mainly affiliated with the Orthodox church, as their religion in 1994. Muslims are the second largest religious groups accounting for a third of the total population.
The history of Ethiopia as an independent state is believed to have started some 3,000 years ago. The pre-Axumite and Axumite civilizations (located in what is now northern Ethiopia) emerged as the most powerful realm between Egypt and Persia, and enjoyed close trading relations with Egypt, as well as Arabia and India. Modern Ethiopia emerged at the end of the 19th century with the crowning of Emperor Menilek II (in 1889) who defeated the Italian colonial invasion in 1896 and thus maintained the country's independence throughout the era of the European 'Scramble for Africa'. Menilek also laid the economic foundation of the modern Ethiopian State. Three completely different forms of government have assumed political power in Ethiopia since the death of Menilek in 1913. Emperor Haile Selassie continued the modernization process up until the military government of Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1974 toppled him. Then the political system changed from a semi-feudal imperial regime to a military rule with Marxist ideological orientation. All rural and urban lands as well as all major business establishments in the country were nationalized through a series of radical proclamations issued between 1975 and 1976. The private sector was stifled and actively discouraged as the government attempted to establish control over production and distribution activities. The military administration was aiming at converting the agricultural system based on individual peasant farming into soviet-style collective farms.
Public dissatisfactions with the dictatorial rule and armed resistance led by a coalition of rebellion groups named the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) resulted in the overthrow of the military government in May 1991. The coalition succeeded in the formation of the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) in July 1991 and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in August 1995. A total of nine states and two autonomous administrative regions are included in the Federation.
The Federal Government has a bicameral parliament, with the Council of People's Representatives being the highest authority, while the Federal Council represents the common interests of the nations, nationalities and peoples of the states. Members of both councils are elected by universal suffrage for five years. The Federal State is headed by a constitutional president and the Federal Government by executive Prime Minister, who is accountable to the Council of Peoples' Representatives. The EPRDF-led coalition currently controls over 90 percent of both councils.
The Federal government has initiated the economic reform program that eventually took the form of Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) under the auspices of the World Bank and IMF. The reform includes devaluation, market liberalization, privatization, and removal of substantial taxation of agriculture, among others. A strategy known as the Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization (ADLI) was also formulated with the belief that a dynamic agricultural sector can serve as the driving force for the rest of the economy. Nonetheless, the country has become land-locked as Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia and declared its independence in 1993.
Agriculture is the single most important sector of the economy. It accounts for about 45 percent of the GDP (2000/01), employs 85 percent of the labor force, generates over 90 percent of the foreign exchange earnings, and supplies the bulk of the raw material inputs to the industrial sector. In 2000/01, the industrial sector accounted for 11 percent of the GDP, compared to the service sector that constituted about 44 percent of the GDP. Large and medium scale manufacturing, mainly concentrated around the capital city, accounted for less than 5 percent of the GDP (Table 1.1).
Mining has not been of a major importance to the Ethiopian economy. But several foreign mining companies have been awarded concessions to prospect for gold and other precious metals since 1996. Gold reserves are estimated at about 60 to 200 tones. Studies have also indicated that the country has substantial reserves of coal, iron ore, tantalum, bicarbonate and potassium, although a number of significant deposits are inaccessible. Limestone, clay and marble are produced in large quantities, and the output of non-metallic minerals has been boosted by the upsurge in construction activity since 1991.[3]
The Ethiopian economy performed very badly in the 1980s as a result of the restrictive government policies. Annual GDP growth rate averaged only 1.1 percent between 1981/82 and 1990/91, growth rate of GDP and agricultural output declined by 10 and 21 percent, respectively, during the disastrous drought of 1984/85. The reform programs of the early 1990s improved the performance of the economy (Table 1.1). Real GDP grew on average by nearly 6 percent between 1992/93 and 2000/01. The growth rate was 12 percent in 1992/93 mainly due to the strong recovery from a very low base or negative growth rates (-3.7%), the pervious year. A growth rate of 10.6 and 9 percent was recorded in 1995/96 and 2000/01, respectively, largely as a result of good weather conditions and bumper harvest. On the other hand, growth rate slipped to -1.2 percent in 1997/98 because of the unfavorable weather that reduced agricultural output by about 11 percent. On average, agricultural GDP grew by 3.6 percent per annum between 1992/93 and 2000/01 (Table 1.1). Although policy changes have influenced performance, the economy remains heavily rainfall dependent.
Gross domestic saving ratios reached as high as 13 percent per annum during the imperial period (prior to 1974) only to reduce to an average of 7.2 percent under the military government (1974-71). The ratio further declined during the post 1991 period, averaging only about 6.5 percent between 1991/92 and 1997/98. Owing to large drop in public savings, gross domestic saving went down to negative 2.1 percent in 1999/00. The border conflict with Eritrea during the period 1999/00 and 2000/01 seriously affected domestic savings, particularly public saving.[4]
Gross fixed capital formation as percent of GDP registered a significant increase after the 1991/92 reform: the investment ratio averaged 15.2 percent during the period 1991/92 to 1997/98.[5] Nonetheless, the ratio of investment for Ethiopia is far below the average for developing countries, estimated at 25.7 percent in 1998/99. Moreover, gross domestic investment in percent of GDP in Ethiopia declined to 13.3 percent in 1999/00.[6] The widening resource gap also required substantial external sources. For instance, gross domestic savings were able to finance only 34 percent of the gross domestic capital formation in 1997/98.[7]
Total external debt stock (excluding ruble denominated debt to Russia) increased from 31.6 billion birr in 1998/99 to birr 44.6 billion in 1999/00, implying an increase in the external indebtedness of the country by 41.4 percent. Because of the unsustainable level of external debt, Ethiopia has been put in the list of heavily indebted poor country (H.I.P.C) and is expected to benefit from the HIPC initiative of the World Bank and IMF. The country's external debt to GDP stood at 86.5 percent in 1999/00.[8]
The structure of the external sector did not show any marked change over the last two or three decades. Ethiopia's export sector is highly dependent on a few agricultural commodities such as coffee, hides and skins, pulses and oilseeds, and chat. Coffee alone accounts for more than 60% of foreign-exchange earnings. The dependence on coffee has become even more dominant in recent years, rendering the country's external sector more susceptible to shocks that affect production and world price developments. Receipts from coffee have declined sharply in recent years due to the collapse of prices in the international market. As a result, the trade gap is thought to have widened to unprecedented levels in the last two years.
Inflation in Ethiopia has never been a serious and persistent threat to saving, investment or purchasing power of consumers. In the 1980s, for instance, the highest rate of inflation recorded was 18.5 during the drought year of 1984/85. Inflation rates were not out of control (not exceeding 21%) even in the last years of the military government (e.g. 1990/91 and 1991/92) when most parts of the country were affected social upheavals. Inflation rates went down considerably under the Transitional and Federal Government. Throughout the period since 1992/93, prices increased by less than 5 percent, except in the drought year 1994/95 that witnessed a 13 percent inflation rate. A negative 4.5 percent was also registered in 2000/01 (Table 1.1). The predominance of the subsistence economy or the low degree magnetization, and sound macroeconomic policies and management are believed to have eased the pressure on prices in Ethiopia.[9]
|
|
1989/90 |
1990/91 |
1991/92 |
1992/93 |
1993/94 |
1994/95 |
1995/96 |
1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
|
1.GrossDomestic Product GDP (Millions of Birr**) GDP per capita (Birr) |
11432.7 243.1 |
10938.1 223.4 |
10534.6 210.4 |
11798.7 227.4 |
11999.3 223.0 |
12644.3 229.3 |
13987.1 250.0 |
14709.9 55.2 |
14572.6 246.6 |
15460.9 255.7 |
16284.3 260.1 |
17688.6 274.7 |
|
2.SectorialDistributionofGDP% Agriculture Industry LMS Manufacturing Distributive Services Other Services |
50.9 11.1 (4.9) 14.9 23.2 |
55.9 9.4 (3.1) 11.9 22.8 |
56.5 9 (2.9) 12.1 22.4 |
53.5 10.4 (3.9) 13.2 23 |
50.7 10.9 (4.3) 13.8 24.7 |
49.7 11.2 (4.4) 13.9 25.2 |
51.5 10.6 (4.3) 13.7 24.1 |
50.7 10.8 (4.4) 14 24.5 |
45.7 11.2 (4.3) 15 28.1 |
44.7 11.7 (4.8) 14.6 29 |
43.2 11.5 (4.8) 14.9 30.4 |
44.9 11.3 (4.7) 14.5 29.4 |
|
1.Annual Growth Rates (%) GDP Agriculture Industry LMS Manufacturing Distributive Services Other Services |
4.1 5.3 -4.7 -3.3 4.4 5.7 |
-4.3 5.2 -19.1 -39.6 -23.5 -5.8 |
-3.7 -2.7 -7.1 -9 -2.5 -5.2 |
12 6.1 28.5 49.1 22.2 14.8 |
1.7 -3.7 7 12.7 6.2 9.2 |
5.4 3.4 8.1 9.4 6.4 7.7 |
10.6 14.7 5.4 7.8 9 5.9 |
5.2 3.4 6.8 5.7 7.7 6.7 |
-1.2 -10.8 2.3 -3.5 5.6 13.4 |
6.3 3.8 11.3 19.8 3.5 9.8 |
5.3 1.9 3 5 7.5 10.4 |
9 13.2 6.7 7 6.1 5.2 |
|
4.Inflation Rate(%) |
5.2 |
20.9 |
21 |
10 |
1.2 |
13.4 |
0.9 |
-6.4 |
2.33 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
-4.5 |
|
5.Population (million) |
47.4 |
48.8 |
50.2 |
51.6 |
53.1 |
54.6 |
56.4 |
58.1 |
59.9 |
61.7 |
63.5 |
65.4 |
|
Growth rate (annual) |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
Source: MEDaC; (2000). Data of 1999/00 and 2000/01 are forecasted value
** The exchange rate ranged roughly between 5 and 8 birr to 1 USD between 1992 and 2001.
1.2 Objectives
ICT have a positive impact on economic growth and development. The predominance of ICTs in the global economy means foreign direct investment and global business are more likely to establish themselves in countries that offer better telephone and Internet connections; whereas, failing to develop technological capabilities implies exclusion and marginalization.
ICTs contribute to economic growth by making global and domestic operations (both in the private and public sectors) more productive and efficient. ICTS increase the effectiveness of services such as health and education. With the help of ICTs, rural and isolated communities could obtain accurate information on fair prices for their products and access regional and national markets. Incomes of the poor are generally known to grow faster in telecommunications-intensive economies.[10]
The objective of the study is, therefore, to collect and analyze the information the country needs to participate in a global information economy. More specifically, the study attempted to:
i. Track the status of ICT-infrastructure related to telephony, Internet, computers, television and radio.
ii. Assess the management capacity of the government.
iii. Examine the extent of human resource development and institutional capacity in the area of ICTs.
iv. Track ICT activities across different sectors - three sectors, education, health and public administration are selected from the list given in the TOR (Annex I).
v. Address the specific economic/industrial dimensions of ICT.
Details of the study objectives are given in the Terms of Reference (Annex I).
1.3 Methodology
Two major approaches are employed in generating data for this study: survey and secondary data. A survey of institutions/firms and individuals is undertaken using structured and pre-tested questionnaires as well as checklists. The institutions/firms are of two types:
(a) public and private ICT firms involved in offering ICT training (short- and long-term) and importing / distributing ICT technologies (hardware and software) - supply side; and
(b) public and private organizations operating in the selected sectors, i.e., education (schools, universities/ colleges), health, and public administration - demand side.
Individuals working in the three sectors and students were also contacted. Both ICT professionals and ICT users – students, teachers, doctors, and other employees working in the institutions of the three sectors were interviewed.
Ethiopia has a Federal System of government with nine autonomous states constituting the Federal entity. The survey is conducted in the Federal capital, Addis Ababa, where most of the ICT activities and policy-making government institutions are concentrated. In addition, four major towns, namely Nazareth, Bahir Dar, Mekelle and Awassa, which serve as the capitals of Oromiya[11], Amhara, Tigray, and Southern Nations and Nationalities Regional States, respectively, are included in the study.
Attempts have been made to select a reasonable sample size in all cases. Systematic random sample survey is used wherever the population size is relatively large, and purposive sample was taken where the population size is small. The two survey categories, institutions/firms and individuals, are handled separately.
Institutions/ firms
With regard to private companies engaged in importing and distributing ICT goods and services, a sample of 44 firms in Addis Ababa, and 18 firms in the four regional towns was identified. The Ethiopian Telecommunication Corporation, the only public institution engaged in importing and distributing ICT goods, was also among the sample firms.
There are three types of schools and colleges in Ethiopia: those owned by the government, private and NGOs. All three types of schools and colleges were included in the survey to track the extent of ICT penetration in schools. Since the number of public schools is relatively large in Addis Ababa, it was planned to take a sample of 12 primary, 7 secondary and 3 tertiary colleges and the Addis Ababa University (with more than 10 faculties and 30 departments).
The number of non-government educational institutions (private, NGO and Mission schools) is rapidly increasing in the capital city; hence 13 primary and secondary and 7 tertiary colleges were identified for the survey.
As the number of schools is limited in the four towns, only one from each primary, secondary and tertiary school owned by the government, private and mission/NGO were included in the survey design. In addition, one tertiary institution was selected from each of the four survey areas.
Government ownership of health facilities is extensive in Ethiopia. Health center and hospital are the major categories of government health service providers, hence 5 hospitals and 5 health centers in Addis Ababa and nearly all facilities in the four other were identified.
Private facilities include pharmacies, clinics (small, medium, and higher) and hospitals. The survey design included a sample of 5 pharmacies, 15 clinics and 2 private hospitals in the Addis Ababa survey. It was planned to take one facility from each group of private health facilities in the four towns.
Individuals
A total of 10 students and 10 teachers from each sample schools in Addis Ababa and 5 teachers and 5 students in the other survey areas were included in the survey design to assess ICT penetration in primary and secondary schools. The sample size from each of the sample tertiary institution was 2 instructors and 10 students in the capital city and 2 instructors and 5 students in the Regions. The number of health professionals and government employees ranged from 1 to 3 for each institution visited. The survey design has also included two professionals working in all the sample institutions
All relevant secondary data were also collected from public institutions connected with ICT infrastructure, policy and regulatory framework. Discussions were also held with several ICT professionals to get further insight on the same and related issues.
All in all, it was planned to contact 2,607 respondents (both institutions and individuals) (Table 1.1). But the total number actually contacted was only 2,192. This is mainly attributed to the limited number of IT professionals working in the various institutions that made it impossible to get the planned sample size (328). As most institutions have no IT professionals, only 62 were interviewed. Public enterprises and professional associations were also dropped from analysis, as the data were incomplete. A total of 8 different, though somewhat similar, sets of questionnaires and checklists were developed.
Table 1.2: Total Number of Questionnaires Distributed to Sample Areas
|
Type of Questionnaire |
Addis Ababa |
Awassa |
Bahir Dar |
Mekele |
Nazareth |
Total |
|
1. Institutions connected with ICT Infrastructure and strategic planning
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NICI strategies and polices |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
|
Regulatory & License Regimes |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
|
ICT Legislation |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
2. Capacity development and sectoral applications 2.1 Education |
|
|
|